Patric

CBSpain · SS Lazio

№ 126729Emerging €1.7M −0.12

Player dossierSerie A

Patric

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: SS Lazio
League: Serie A
Nationality: Spain
Age: 33
Height: 184 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Patric at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Patric during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 33
Minutes: 1,849
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 18/33
Min / app: 56
Cards: 6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Patric…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% defender median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €200k; Aug 2012
Peak: €9M; Aug 2020
Model target: €1.5M; May 2026
Valuations: 34; 1 club change

May 2026€1.5MSS LazioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, SS Lazio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2012-08-07	€200k	FC Barcelona B
2012-12-02	€300k	FC Barcelona B
2013-01-22	€600k	FC Barcelona B
2013-05-09	€600k	FC Barcelona B
2013-10-08	€600k	FC Barcelona B
2014-02-10	€600k	FC Barcelona B
2014-08-05	€800k	FC Barcelona B
2015-01-08	€800k	FC Barcelona B
2015-07-01	€800k	SS Lazio
2016-01-04	€800k	SS Lazio
2016-07-15	€800k	SS Lazio
2017-01-02	€1M	SS Lazio
2017-06-08	€1.8M	SS Lazio
2017-12-29	€2M	SS Lazio
2018-06-07	€1.8M	SS Lazio
2018-12-20	€2M	SS Lazio
2019-06-06	€1.8M	SS Lazio
2019-12-12	€3M	SS Lazio
2020-03-03	€8M	SS Lazio
2020-04-08	€6.5M	SS Lazio
2020-08-25	€9M	SS Lazio
2020-12-29	€9M	SS Lazio
2021-03-23	€6.5M	SS Lazio
2021-06-03	€6.5M	SS Lazio
2021-12-28	€5M	SS Lazio
2022-06-07	€5.5M	SS Lazio
2022-11-11	€6M	SS Lazio
2023-06-15	€5M	SS Lazio
2023-12-20	€4M	SS Lazio
2024-06-05	€4M	SS Lazio
2024-12-18	€4M	SS Lazio
2025-06-17	€2.5M	SS Lazio
2025-12-23	€1.5M	SS Lazio
2026-05-29	€1.5M	SS Lazio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.123

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 15% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Patric appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).