FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Craig

Gordon

GKScotland · Heart of Midlothian FC

№ 12589Emerging €115k −0.83

Player dossierPremiership

CraigGordon

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Heart of Midlothian FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
43
Height
193 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gordon at €50k. Model A, which never saw Gordon during training, estimates €115k: the market value is 56% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €202k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.83A €115k▼ −1.39B €202k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
3,615
Started
39/40
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gordon…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50kModel A €115k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Craig Gordon's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 18th, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 67th64thMinutes18thStarts9thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

5% this player0% goalkeeper median67th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€750k
Oct 2004
Peak
€10M
Sept 2007
Model target
€50k
May 2026
Valuations
40
4 club changes
May 2026€50kHeart of Midlothian FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €50k, Heart of Midlothian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2004-10-04€750kHeart of Midlothian FC
2005-12-09€1.5MHeart of Midlothian FC
2005-12-19€1.8MHeart of Midlothian FC
2007-08-07€6MHeart of Midlothian FC
2007-09-01€10MSunderland AFC
2008-01-21€7.3MSunderland AFC
2008-07-04€7MSunderland AFC
2009-02-23€6.5MSunderland AFC
2009-06-25€5.5MSunderland AFC
2010-01-24€5.5MSunderland AFC
2010-08-13€5.5MSunderland AFC
2011-02-01€6.5MSunderland AFC
2011-08-08€6.5MSunderland AFC
2012-02-06€5MSunderland AFC
2012-06-24€3MSunderland AFC
2012-09-02€1.8MCareer break
2012-11-11€1MCareer break
2013-03-31€500kCareer break
2014-10-07€1MCeltic FC
2015-11-30€1.5MCeltic FC
2017-02-14€2.5MCeltic FC
2018-03-04€2.5MCeltic FC
2018-08-08€2MCeltic FC
2019-01-03€2MCeltic FC
2019-08-20€1.5MCeltic FC
2020-02-05€1MCeltic FC
2020-04-08€800kCeltic FC
2020-07-21€650kHeart of Midlothian FC
2021-01-18€500kHeart of Midlothian FC
2021-05-28€450kHeart of Midlothian FC
2021-12-31€450kHeart of Midlothian FC
2022-06-27€450kHeart of Midlothian FC
2022-12-13€450kHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-06-26€400kHeart of Midlothian FC
2023-12-05€200kHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-05-30€150kHeart of Midlothian FC
2024-12-03€100kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-06-17€50kHeart of Midlothian FC
2025-12-10€50kHeart of Midlothian FC
2026-05-20€50kHeart of Midlothian FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.830

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 2% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 0% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gordon appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).