FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Victor Ntino-Emo

Gidado

AMNigeria · Gaziantep FK

№ 1209519Emerging €474k −0.17

Player dossierSüper Lig

Victor Ntino-EmoGidado

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Gaziantep FK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
21
Height
–
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gidado at €400k. Model A, which never saw Gidado during training, estimates €474k: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €545k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.17A €474k▼ −0.31B €545k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
11
Minutes
521
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
5/11
Min / app
47
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gidado…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €474k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 2nd, Starts 16th, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists2ndMinutes16thStarts13thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2023
Peak
€400k
Dec 2025
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
6
1 club change
May 2026€400kGaziantep FKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Gaziantep FK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-12-21€50kNK Bravo
2024-05-24€250kNK Bravo
2024-12-11€250kNK Bravo
2025-05-27€300kNK Bravo
2025-12-10€400kNK Bravo
2026-05-21€400kGaziantep FK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.169

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 15% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gidado appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).