FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Oskar Pietuszewski

Oskar

Pietuszewski

LWPoland · FC Porto

№ 1162012Elite €27.2M −0.09

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

OskarPietuszewski

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
FC Porto
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Poland
Age
18
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pietuszewski at €25M. Model A, which never saw Pietuszewski during training, estimates €27.2M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.09A €27.2M▲ +0.51B €15.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
1,113
Goals
3
Assists
4
Started
14/23
Min / app
48
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pietuszewski…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €27.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Oskar Pietuszewski's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 53rd, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 91st46thGoals93rdAssists23rdMinutes53rdStarts41stRecent91stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.32 this player0.15 attacker median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Dec 2024
Peak
€25M
May 2026
Model target
€25M
May 2026
Valuations
7
1 club change
May 2026€25MFC PortoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €25M, FC Porto. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-12-09€150kJagiellonia Bialystok
2025-04-03€1MJagiellonia Bialystok
2025-06-06€2.5MJagiellonia Bialystok
2025-09-26€8MJagiellonia Bialystok
2025-12-08€12MJagiellonia Bialystok
2026-03-19€20MFC Porto
2026-05-28€25MFC Porto

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.086

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 93% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 90% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pietuszewski appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).