Miguel
Nogueira
RWPortugal · Vitória Guimarães SC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
MiguelNogueira
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- Vitória Guimarães SC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Nogueira at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Nogueira during training, estimates €841k: the market value is 78% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.78. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €889k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 16
- Minutes
- 796
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 11/16
- Min / app
- 50
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nogueira…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
69% this player59% attacker median66th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Sept 2025
- Peak
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 4
- 0 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, Vitória Guimarães SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | €500k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2025-12-18 | €500k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2026-03-19 | €1M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.5M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.578
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Nogueira appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- JordanCFCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- SchettineCFMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- MoreiraCMCF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- PanzoCBRio Ave FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- GregoritschCFFC Augsburg · attackers€1.5M
- BelottiCFCagliari Calcio · attackers€1.5M
- BeckerLW1.FSV Mainz 05 · attackers€1.5M
- GlatzelCFHamburger SV · attackers€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).