FairValue

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Andrey

Lunev

GKRussia · Dynamo Moscow

№ 112541Emerging €476k +0.52

Player dossierPremier Liga

AndreyLunev

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Dynamo Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
34
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lunev at €800k. Model A, which never saw Lunev during training, estimates €476k: the market value is 68% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.68. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €288k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.52A €476k▲ +1.02B €288k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
4,310
Started
48/48
Min / app
90
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lunev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €476k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Andrey Lunev's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 32nd70thMinutes62ndStarts51stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,310 this player2,790 goalkeeper median70th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Apr 2010
Peak
€10.5M
Jun 2019
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
31
5 club changes
May 2026€800kDynamo MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Dynamo Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-04-14€25kTorpedo Moskau
2011-05-30€25kTorpedo Moskau
2012-08-12€25kTorpedo Moskau
2013-01-22€50kTorpedo Moskau
2013-06-08€50kTorpedo Moskau
2016-01-06€50kFC Ufa
2016-05-25€50kFC Ufa
2016-10-16€500kFC Ufa
2016-12-27€2MFC Ufa
2017-06-01€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2017-10-02€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2017-12-23€7MZenit St. Petersburg
2018-06-06€8MZenit St. Petersburg
2018-12-20€10MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-06-14€10.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-12-23€9MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-04-08€7MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-07-29€6.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-12-29€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-05-26€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-12-22€4MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-06-09€2.5MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2022-11-09€1.5MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-06-22€1.2MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2023-12-27€1MQarabağ FK
2024-06-12€1MQarabağ FK
2024-09-18€1.5MDynamo Moscow
2024-12-12€1.5MDynamo Moscow
2025-06-04€1.2MDynamo Moscow
2025-12-16€1MDynamo Moscow
2026-05-26€800kDynamo Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.520

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 33% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lunev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).