BenjaminPauwels

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club: FC Volendam
League: Eredivisie
Nationality: Belgium
Age: 21
Height: 181 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pauwels at €800k. Model A, which never saw Pauwels during training, estimates €441k: the market value is 81% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €758k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 11
Minutes: 535
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 7/11
Min / app: 49
Cards: 0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pauwels…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

64% this player59% attacker median58th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €150k; Oct 2023
Peak: €1.3M; Oct 2025
Model target: €800k; May 2026
Valuations: 9; 3 club changes

May 2026€800kFC VolendamValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, FC Volendam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2023-10-02	€150k	Beerschot VA
2023-12-28	€250k	Beerschot VA
2024-06-20	€250k	Beerschot VA
2024-10-14	€325k	SC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2024-12-10	€400k	SC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2025-06-09	€650k	SC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2025-10-16	€1.3M	CD Leganés
2025-12-30	€1M	CD Leganés
2026-05-28	€800k	FC Volendam

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.596

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 40% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Pauwels appears

TerminalEredivisie in the Player Explorer
TerminalEredivisie on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).