FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Robinho

CMBrazil · CF Estrela Amadora

№ 1093626Emerging €623k −0.04

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Robinho

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
CF Estrela Amadora
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Robinho at €600k. Model A, which never saw Robinho during training, estimates €623k: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €794k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €623k▼ −0.28B €794k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
931
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
9/23
Min / app
40
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Robinho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €623k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Robinho's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals51stAssists12thMinutes11thStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.10 this player0.09 midfielder median51st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jun 2025
Peak
€600k
May 2026
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
4
1 club change
May 2026€600kCF Estrela AmadoraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, CF Estrela Amadora. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2025-06-27€150kUnknown
2025-09-30€500kCF Estrela Amadora
2025-12-18€500kCF Estrela Amadora
2026-05-28€600kCF Estrela Amadora

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.038

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Robinho appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).