FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jean

Pedroso

CBBrazil · Karpaty Lviv

№ 1090422Emerging €870k +0.03

Player dossierPremier Liha

JeanPedroso

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Karpaty Lviv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Brazil
Age
22
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pedroso at €900k. Model A, which never saw Pedroso during training, estimates €870k: the market value is 3% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.03A €870k▼ −1.84B €5.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
3,396
Goals
4
Assists
2
Started
36/44
Min / app
77
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pedroso…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €900kModel A €870k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jean Pedroso's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 88th, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 50th, European club minutes 30th88thGoals59thAssists60thMinutes49thStarts50thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.11 this player0.03 defender median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Feb 2023
Peak
€1M
Jul 2023
Model target
€900k
Jun 2026
Valuations
9
1 club change
Jun 2026€900kKarpaty LvivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €900k, Karpaty Lviv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-02-17€500kCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2023-04-07€700kCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2023-07-25€1MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2023-12-11€1MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2024-04-18€1MCoritiba Foot Ball Club
2024-12-17€900kKarpaty Lviv
2025-06-10€900kKarpaty Lviv
2025-12-18€900kKarpaty Lviv
2026-06-02€900kKarpaty Lviv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.034

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 75% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€900kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pedroso appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).