Honest
Ahanor
CBItaly · Atalanta BC
Close-up
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierSerie A
HonestAhanor
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Atalanta BC
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 18
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Ahanor at €30M. Model A, which never saw Ahanor during training, estimates €39.6M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €23M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 41
- Minutes
- 2,172
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 22/41
- Min / app
- 53
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ahanor…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
17% this player0% defender median80th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1M
- Jun 2024
- Peak
- €30M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €30M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 7
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €30M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-25 | €1M | Genoa U19 |
| 2024-10-18 | €3M | Genoa CFC |
| 2024-12-18 | €3M | Genoa CFC |
| 2025-06-17 | €5M | Genoa CFC |
| 2025-10-07 | €20M | Atalanta BC |
| 2025-12-23 | €25M | Atalanta BC |
| 2026-05-29 | €30M | Atalanta BC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.278
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 91% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ahanor appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- McKennieCMJuventus FC · Serie A€30M
- BuongiornoCBSSC Napoli · Serie A€30M
- KrstovićCFAtalanta BC · Serie A€30M
- KetelaereAMAtalanta BC · Serie A€30M
- LigtCBManchester United · defenders€30M
- WhiteRBArsenal FC · defenders€30M
- DalotRBManchester United · defenders€30M
- CollinsCBBrentford FC · defenders€30M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).