FairValue

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Portrait of Luca Reggiani

Luca

Reggiani

CBItaly · Borussia Dortmund

№ 1074990Elite €13.3M −0.29

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

LucaReggiani

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Borussia Dortmund
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Italy
Age
18
Height
194 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Reggiani at €10M. Model A, which never saw Reggiani during training, estimates €13.3M: the market value is 25% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.33. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.29A €13.3M▲ +0.41B €6.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
9
Minutes
603
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
7/9
Min / app
67
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Reggiani…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €13.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Luca Reggiani's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 95th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 3rd, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 15th, European club minutes 78th95thGoals17thAssists3rdMinutes40thStarts15thRecent78thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.15 this player0.03 defender median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Feb 2026
Peak
€10M
May 2026
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
3
1 club change
May 2026€10MBorussia DortmundValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Borussia Dortmund. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2026-02-07€1MBorussia Dortmund U19
2026-03-20€5MBorussia Dortmund
2026-05-27€10MBorussia Dortmund

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.288

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 65% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Reggiani appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).