Deniz
Gül
CFTürkiye · FC Porto
Player dossierLiga Portugal
DenizGül
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- FC Porto
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Türkiye
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Gül at €5M. Model A, which never saw Gül during training, estimates €11.8M: the market value is 58% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 62
- Minutes
- 2,168
- Goals
- 8
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 21/62
- Min / app
- 35
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gül…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
22% this player0% attacker median87th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Dec 2023
- Peak
- €6M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 7
- 1 club change
May 2026: €5M, FC Porto. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-08 | €250k | Hammarby IF |
| 2024-06-13 | €2M | Hammarby IF |
| 2024-10-08 | €4.5M | FC Porto |
| 2024-12-19 | €4.5M | FC Porto |
| 2025-05-30 | €4M | FC Porto |
| 2025-12-18 | €6M | FC Porto |
| 2026-05-28 | €5M | FC Porto |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.862
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 76% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Gül appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CarvalhoAMGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€5M
- CarevićGKFC Famalicão · Liga Portugal€5M
- GuitaneRWGD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal€5M
- RamírezCFCD Nacional · Liga Portugal€5M
- WoodCFNottingham Forest · attackers€5M
- PolitanoRWSSC Napoli · attackers€5M
- SaïdSSRC Lens · attackers€5M
- ThauvinRWRC Lens · attackers€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).