FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Adrián

Liso

LWSpain · Getafe CF

№ 1061122Established €10.3M −1.23

Player dossierLaLiga

AdriánLiso

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Getafe CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
21
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Liso at €3M. Model A, which never saw Liso during training, estimates €10.3M: the market value is 71% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×3.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.23A €10.3M▼ −0.94B €7.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,801
Goals
3
Assists
3
Started
21/31
Min / app
58
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Liso…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €10.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Adrián Liso's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 23rd, Assists per 90 52nd, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 28th23rdGoals52ndAssists39thMinutes65thStarts66thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,801 this player1,301 attacker median66th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Oct 2023
Peak
€8M
Dec 2025
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€3MGetafe CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Getafe CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-10-13€25kRZ Deportivo Aragón
2023-12-20€25kRZ Deportivo Aragón
2024-03-26€100kRZ Deportivo Aragón
2024-06-24€600kRZ Deportivo Aragón
2024-10-14€2MReal Zaragoza
2024-12-13€2MReal Zaragoza
2025-06-24€2MReal Zaragoza
2025-10-02€4MGetafe CF
2025-12-12€8MGetafe CF
2026-03-16€6MGetafe CF
2026-06-05€3MGetafe CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.231

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Liso appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).