Jason
Holt
CMScotland · St. Johnstone FC
Player dossierPremiership
JasonHolt
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- St. Johnstone FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 168 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 10 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Holt at €100k. Model A, which never saw Holt during training, estimates €129k: the market value is 23% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €418k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 47
- Minutes
- 3,774
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 44/47
- Min / app
- 80
- Cards
- 10Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Holt…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
94% this player69% midfielder median91st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Dec 2011
- Peak
- €750k
- Mar 2018
- Model target
- €100k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 21
- 5 club changes
Dec 2025: €100k, St. Johnstone FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-12-15 | €100k | Raith Rovers FC |
| 2013-10-08 | €250k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2014-02-13 | €250k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2014-10-06 | €250k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2015-11-16 | €250k | Rangers FC |
| 2017-02-14 | €500k | Rangers FC |
| 2018-03-04 | €750k | Rangers FC |
| 2019-10-07 | €600k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €400k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €325k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2021-01-18 | €400k | Livingston FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €400k | Livingston FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €400k | Livingston FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €500k | Livingston FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €450k | Livingston FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €450k | Livingston FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €400k | Livingston FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €300k | Livingston FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €250k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €200k | St. Johnstone FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €100k | St. Johnstone FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.257
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 7% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 0% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Holt appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BainGKFalkirk FC · Premiership€100k
- ShinnieDMAberdeen FC · Premiership€100k
- WilsonCBLivingston FC · Premiership€100k
- GallagherCBRoss County FC · Premiership€100k
- IvanovAMRubin Kazan · midfielders€100k
- NeiraAMOFI Crete · midfielders€100k
- ChernenkoCMObolon Kyiv · midfielders€100k
- SimãoCMFC Arouca · midfielders€100k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).