Thibaut
Courtois
GKBelgium · Real Madrid
Player dossierLaLiga
ThibautCourtois
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Real Madrid
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Belgium
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 199 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Courtois at €15M. Model A, which never saw Courtois during training, estimates €6.3M: the market value is 136% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 97
- Minutes
- 8,745
- Started
- 97/97
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Courtois…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
8,745 this player2,790 goalkeeper median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- May 2009
- Peak
- €75M
- Oct 2020
- Model target
- €15M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 46
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €15M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2009-05-27 | €50k | KRC Genk U19 |
| 2010-07-28 | €150k | KRC Genk |
| 2010-10-06 | €1M | KRC Genk |
| 2010-12-28 | €2M | KRC Genk |
| 2011-05-24 | €3M | KRC Genk |
| 2011-06-28 | €4M | KRC Genk |
| 2011-07-29 | €6M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2012-02-03 | €9M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2012-08-01 | €15M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2013-01-10 | €15M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2013-06-12 | €18M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2013-09-17 | €25M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2014-01-23 | €25M | Atlético de Madrid |
| 2014-08-12 | €25M | Chelsea FC |
| 2015-02-12 | €30M | Chelsea FC |
| 2015-07-01 | €35M | Chelsea FC |
| 2016-02-09 | €35M | Chelsea FC |
| 2016-06-01 | €35M | Chelsea FC |
| 2016-08-01 | €35M | Chelsea FC |
| 2017-02-20 | €40M | Chelsea FC |
| 2017-06-28 | €40M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-01-02 | €50M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-03-23 | €60M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-05-28 | €60M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-07-16 | €65M | Chelsea FC |
| 2018-12-21 | €65M | Real Madrid |
| 2019-06-11 | €55M | Real Madrid |
| 2019-12-20 | €55M | Real Madrid |
| 2020-03-05 | €60M | Real Madrid |
| 2020-04-08 | €48M | Real Madrid |
| 2020-07-23 | €60M | Real Madrid |
| 2020-10-08 | €75M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-01-05 | €75M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-05-26 | €60M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-12-30 | €65M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-06-03 | €60M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-11-07 | €60M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-06-13 | €45M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-12-22 | €35M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-03-21 | €30M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €28M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-10-11 | €25M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €25M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €20M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-12-12 | €18M | Real Madrid |
| 2026-06-05 | €15M | Real Madrid |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.860
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 92% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Courtois appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OblakGKAtlético de Madrid · LaLiga€15M
- TsygankovRWGirona FC · LaLiga€15M
- GómezLBReal Sociedad · LaLiga€15M
- MolinaRBAtlético de Madrid · LaLiga€15M
- AlissonGKLiverpool FC · goalkeepers€15M
- ÇakırGKGalatasaray · goalkeepers€15M
- HermansenGKWest Ham United · goalkeepers€15M
- CaprileGKCagliari Calcio · goalkeepers€15M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).