JosephJones

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig
League: Premier Liha
Nationality: Panama
Age: 20
Height: 182 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jones at €600k. Model A, which never saw Jones during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 43% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.76. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 12
Minutes: 1,073
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 12/12
Min / app: 89
Cards: 2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jones…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Jun 2023
Peak: €600k; Mar 2026
Model target: €600k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 8; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€600kKryvbas Kryvyi RigValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €600k, Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2023-06-21	€100k	Unknown
2023-12-22	€100k	Unknown
2024-06-12	€50k	CD Plaza Amador
2024-12-03	€25k	CD Plaza Amador
2025-06-04	€250k	CD Plaza Amador
2025-12-12	€275k	CD Plaza Amador
2026-03-23	€600k	Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig
2026-06-02	€600k	Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.567

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 61% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Jones appears

TerminalPremier Liha in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier Liha on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).