FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Yasin

Özcan

CBTürkiye · Besiktas JK

№ 1043003Established €6.2M −0.21

Player dossierSüper Lig

YasinÖzcan

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Besiktas JK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
20
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Özcan at €5M. Model A, which never saw Özcan during training, estimates €6.2M: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.21A €6.2M▼ −0.68B €9.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
3,241
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
38/43
Min / app
75
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Özcan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €6.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Yasin Özcan's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 63rd67thGoals60thAssists57thMinutes65thStarts13thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.06 this player0.03 defender median67th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2022
Peak
€7.5M
Jun 2025
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
May 2026€5MBesiktas JKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, Besiktas JK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-07€50kKasimpasa
2022-10-27€150kKasimpasa
2023-03-14€650kKasimpasa
2023-06-08€2.1MKasimpasa
2023-09-27€2.8MKasimpasa
2023-12-21€3.8MKasimpasa
2024-03-15€4.5MKasimpasa
2024-05-31€4.5MKasimpasa
2024-10-04€4.5MKasimpasa
2024-12-23€4.5MKasimpasa
2025-03-20€6MKasimpasa
2025-06-18€7.5MKasimpasa
2025-12-10€5MRSC Anderlecht
2026-05-21€5MBesiktas JK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.214

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 81% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Özcan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).