FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Geoffrey

Kondo

CBFrance · Cercle Brugge

№ 1027253Established €723k +1.42

Player dossierPro League

GeoffreyKondo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Cercle Brugge
League
Pro League
Nationality
France
Age
24
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kondo at €3M. Model A, which never saw Kondo during training, estimates €723k: the market value is 315% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×4.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €929k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.42A €723k▲ +1.17B €929k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
900
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
10/10
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kondo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €723k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Geoffrey Kondo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 87th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 10th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 30th87thGoals77thAssists10thMinutes97thStarts26thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Dec 2022
Peak
€3M
Jun 2026
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
3 club changes
Jun 2026€3MCercle BruggeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Cercle Brugge. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-12-20€150kUSL Dunkerque
2023-06-14€150kUSL Dunkerque
2024-06-14€125kAS Furiani-Agliani
2024-12-04€100kUSL Dunkerque
2025-03-12€200kUSL Dunkerque
2025-06-02€200kUSL Dunkerque
2025-10-13€500kUSL Dunkerque
2025-12-11€800kUSL Dunkerque
2026-03-13€2MCercle Brugge
2026-06-04€3MCercle Brugge

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.422

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 67% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kondo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).