FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Terminal Players

Comparison Studio

Two to four players on one scale: observed value, both models, what moves each estimate, and the record behind it.

  • CFSantiago Castro
  • RWTakefusa Kubo

Value ladder

observed value against Model A and Model B, one row per player
  1. Castro€32MA €52.7M · B €40.3M
  2. Kubo€20MA €10.1M · B €16M
Observed Model A Model BEach row is one player (their marker and colour on the left). Log scale, euros; dashed lines: the €2M / €10M / €30M tier boundaries.

What moves each estimate

Model A, input by input

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for each player…

Performance profile

model inputs, two years to the valuation date
Goals per 90Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.30
0.15
Assists per 90Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.17
0.14
Minutes, two yearsTotal club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
6,263
5,236
StartsShare of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
75%
75%
Minutes, last 365 daysClub minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
3,443
1,746
European club minutesShare of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
19%
13%

Raw values from the two years to each valuation date, on an axis from zero. Shaded bands: the 10th to 90th percentile of each player's positional peers.

The record

Castro dossier · Kubo dossier
FactCastroKubo
RoleCentre-Forward (Attack)Right Winger (Attack)
LeagueSerie ALaLiga
ClubBologna FC 1909Real Sociedad
Age2125
Height179 cm173 cm
FootRightLeft
Appearances9779
Minutes6,2635,236
Started73 of 9759 of 79
Goals / assists21 / 129 / 8
Observed value€32M · World Class€20M · Elite
Model A€52.7M · held-out€10.1M · held-out
Model B€40.3M · held-out€16M · held-out

Valuation history

€100k€500k€1M€5M€10M€50MSantiago Castro, 2022-05-24: €100kSantiago Castro, 2022-10-26: €1MSantiago Castro, 2023-07-04: €1MSantiago Castro, 2023-10-04: €3.5MSantiago Castro, 2023-12-19: €7MSantiago Castro, 2024-03-12: €12MSantiago Castro, 2024-06-05: €12MSantiago Castro, 2024-10-18: €18MSantiago Castro, 2024-12-18: €25MSantiago Castro, 2025-03-25: €35MSantiago Castro, 2025-06-17: €35MSantiago Castro, 2025-12-23: €35MSantiago Castro, 2026-05-29: €32MTakefusa Kubo, 2018-01-05: €300kTakefusa Kubo, 2019-01-05: €500kTakefusa Kubo, 2019-06-27: €2MTakefusa Kubo, 2019-09-10: €10MTakefusa Kubo, 2019-12-20: €15MTakefusa Kubo, 2020-04-08: €13.5MTakefusa Kubo, 2020-07-23: €30MTakefusa Kubo, 2020-10-08: €30MTakefusa Kubo, 2021-01-05: €20MTakefusa Kubo, 2021-03-19: €15MTakefusa Kubo, 2021-06-10: €15MTakefusa Kubo, 2021-10-13: €10MTakefusa Kubo, 2021-12-30: €10MTakefusa Kubo, 2022-03-21: €9MTakefusa Kubo, 2022-06-03: €7.5MTakefusa Kubo, 2022-09-23: €9MTakefusa Kubo, 2022-11-07: €12MTakefusa Kubo, 2023-03-23: €15MTakefusa Kubo, 2023-06-13: €25MTakefusa Kubo, 2023-10-13: €50MTakefusa Kubo, 2023-12-22: €60MTakefusa Kubo, 2024-06-07: €50MTakefusa Kubo, 2024-12-27: €40MTakefusa Kubo, 2025-06-09: €30MTakefusa Kubo, 2025-12-12: €30MTakefusa Kubo, 2026-06-05: €20M
Published Transfermarkt valuations only, drawn as steps; nothing is interpolated between observations.