FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Terminal Players

Comparison Studio

Two to four players on one scale: observed value, both models, what moves each estimate, and the record behind it.

  • CMPedri
  • DMVitinha
  • CMJoão Neves
  • AMJude Bellingham

Value ladder

observed value against Model A and Model B, one row per player
  1. Pedri€150MA €83.3M · B €66.3M
  2. Vitinha€140MA €66.3M · B €63M
  3. Neves€140MA €57.5M · B €43.2M
  4. Bellingham€130MA €104M · B €63.1M
Observed Model A Model BEach row is one player (their marker and colour on the left). Log scale, euros; dashed lines: the €2M / €10M / €30M tier boundaries.

What moves each estimate

Model A, input by input

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for each player…

Performance profile

model inputs, two years to the valuation date
Goals per 90Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.09
0.17
0.19
0.28
Assists per 90Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.23
0.17
0.20
0.24
Minutes, two yearsTotal club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
7,741
7,944
6,269
7,423
StartsShare of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
89%
85%
80%
87%
Minutes, last 365 daysClub minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
3,094
4,371
2,915
3,165
European club minutesShare of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
23%
45%
47%
31%

Raw values from the two years to each valuation date, on an axis from zero. Shaded bands: the 10th to 90th percentile of each player's positional peers.

The record

Pedri dossier · Vitinha dossier · Neves dossier · Bellingham dossier
FactPedriVitinhaNevesBellingham
RoleCentral Midfield (Midfield)Defensive Midfield (Midfield)Central Midfield (Midfield)Attacking Midfield (Midfield)
LeagueLaLigaLigue 1Ligue 1LaLiga
ClubFC BarcelonaParis Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainReal Madrid
Age23262122
Height174 cm170 cm171 cm186 cm
FootRightRightRightRight
Appearances1021018997
Minutes7,7417,9446,2697,423
Started91 of 10286 of 10171 of 8984 of 97
Goals / assists8 / 2015 / 1513 / 1423 / 20
Observed value€150M · World Class€140M · World Class€140M · World Class€130M · World Class
Model A€83.3M · held-out€66.3M · held-out€57.5M · held-out€104M · held-out
Model B€66.3M · held-out€63M · held-out€43.2M · held-out€63.1M · held-out

Valuation history

€500k€1M€5M€10M€50M€100MPedri, 2019-09-10: €5MPedri, 2019-12-20: €8MPedri, 2020-04-08: €7.2MPedri, 2020-10-08: €15MPedri, 2020-11-23: €30MPedri, 2021-01-05: €50MPedri, 2021-03-19: €70MPedri, 2021-05-31: €70MPedri, 2021-07-15: €80MPedri, 2021-12-30: €80MPedri, 2022-06-03: €80MPedri, 2022-09-23: €90MPedri, 2022-11-07: €100MPedri, 2023-06-13: €100MPedri, 2023-12-22: €90MPedri, 2024-03-21: €80MPedri, 2024-06-07: €80MPedri, 2024-12-27: €100MPedri, 2025-03-21: €120MPedri, 2025-06-09: €140MPedri, 2025-12-12: €140MPedri, 2026-03-16: €150MPedri, 2026-06-05: €150MVitinha, 2019-12-31: €1.5MVitinha, 2020-04-08: €1.3MVitinha, 2020-08-17: €5MVitinha, 2020-10-13: €5MVitinha, 2021-03-18: €6MVitinha, 2021-06-08: €7MVitinha, 2021-12-27: €12MVitinha, 2022-03-10: €24MVitinha, 2022-05-31: €30MVitinha, 2022-09-19: €40MVitinha, 2022-11-02: €45MVitinha, 2023-03-27: €42MVitinha, 2023-06-27: €42MVitinha, 2023-10-16: €45MVitinha, 2023-12-18: €45MVitinha, 2024-06-03: €50MVitinha, 2024-07-18: €55MVitinha, 2024-12-10: €55MVitinha, 2025-03-24: €60MVitinha, 2025-06-03: €80MVitinha, 2025-10-10: €90MVitinha, 2025-12-15: €110MVitinha, 2026-06-01: €140MJoão Neves, 2022-06-27: €400kJoão Neves, 2022-12-28: €500kJoão Neves, 2023-03-02: €2.5MJoão Neves, 2023-06-16: €10MJoão Neves, 2023-09-29: €20MJoão Neves, 2023-12-27: €45MJoão Neves, 2024-06-06: €55MJoão Neves, 2024-10-07: €60MJoão Neves, 2024-12-10: €60MJoão Neves, 2025-03-24: €65MJoão Neves, 2025-06-03: €80MJoão Neves, 2025-10-10: €90MJoão Neves, 2025-12-15: €110MJoão Neves, 2026-06-01: €140MJude Bellingham, 2019-10-17: €2.5MJude Bellingham, 2020-02-27: €12MJude Bellingham, 2020-04-08: €11MJude Bellingham, 2020-09-16: €27MJude Bellingham, 2021-02-10: €35MJude Bellingham, 2021-05-28: €55MJude Bellingham, 2021-10-07: €70MJude Bellingham, 2021-12-22: €75MJude Bellingham, 2022-06-09: €80MJude Bellingham, 2022-09-21: €90MJude Bellingham, 2022-11-09: €100MJude Bellingham, 2022-12-23: €110MJude Bellingham, 2023-03-29: €120MJude Bellingham, 2023-06-22: €120MJude Bellingham, 2023-10-13: €150MJude Bellingham, 2023-12-22: €180MJude Bellingham, 2024-06-07: €180MJude Bellingham, 2024-12-27: €180MJude Bellingham, 2025-06-09: €180MJude Bellingham, 2025-12-12: €160MJude Bellingham, 2026-03-16: €140MJude Bellingham, 2026-06-05: €130M
Published Transfermarkt valuations only, drawn as steps; nothing is interpolated between observations.