FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Terminal Players

Comparison Studio

Two to four players on one scale: observed value, both models, what moves each estimate, and the record behind it.

  • CBWilliam Saliba
  • RBAchraf Hakimi
  • LBNuno Mendes
  • CBWillian Pacho

Value ladder

observed value against Model A and Model B, one row per player
  1. Saliba€100MA €74.1M · B €43.6M
  2. Hakimi€80MA €44.4M · B €19.3M
  3. Mendes€80MA €42.1M · B €30.6M
  4. Pacho€80MA €70.7M · B €38.2M
Observed Model A Model BEach row is one player (their marker and colour on the left). Log scale, euros; dashed lines: the €2M / €10M / €30M tier boundaries.

What moves each estimate

Model A, input by input

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for each player…

Performance profile

model inputs, two years to the valuation date
Goals per 90Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.03
0.17
0.17
0.02
Assists per 90Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.01
0.32
0.17
0.02
Minutes, two yearsTotal club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
8,285
6,789
6,460
7,738
StartsShare of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
98%
95%
85%
92%
Minutes, last 365 daysClub minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
4,134
3,091
3,245
3,976
European club minutesShare of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
24%
48%
52%
45%

Raw values from the two years to each valuation date, on an axis from zero. Shaded bands: the 10th to 90th percentile of each player's positional peers.

The record

Saliba dossier · Hakimi dossier · Mendes dossier · Pacho dossier
FactSalibaHakimiMendesPacho
RoleCentre-Back (Defender)Right-Back (Defender)Left-Back (Defender)Centre-Back (Defender)
LeaguePremier LeagueLigue 1Ligue 1Ligue 1
ClubArsenal FCParis Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainParis Saint-Germain
Age25272324
Height192 cm180 cm177 cm188 cm
FootRightRightLeftLeft
Appearances96818692
Minutes8,2856,7896,4607,738
Started94 of 9677 of 8173 of 8685 of 92
Goals / assists3 / 113 / 2412 / 122 / 2
Observed value€100M · World Class€80M · World Class€80M · World Class€80M · World Class
Model A€74.1M · held-out€44.4M · held-out€42.1M · held-out€70.7M · held-out
Model B€43.6M · held-out€19.3M · held-out€30.6M · held-out€38.2M · held-out

Valuation history

€100k€500k€1M€5M€10M€50M€100MWilliam Saliba, 2018-10-24: €3MWilliam Saliba, 2018-12-17: €3MWilliam Saliba, 2019-06-03: €12MWilliam Saliba, 2019-09-27: €25MWilliam Saliba, 2019-12-19: €25MWilliam Saliba, 2020-04-08: €22.5MWilliam Saliba, 2020-10-13: €22.5MWilliam Saliba, 2020-12-17: €17MWilliam Saliba, 2021-06-04: €18MWilliam Saliba, 2021-12-16: €24MWilliam Saliba, 2022-05-30: €30MWilliam Saliba, 2022-09-15: €40MWilliam Saliba, 2022-11-03: €50MWilliam Saliba, 2023-03-16: €55MWilliam Saliba, 2023-06-20: €65MWilliam Saliba, 2023-10-09: €70MWilliam Saliba, 2023-12-19: €75MWilliam Saliba, 2024-03-14: €80MWilliam Saliba, 2024-05-27: €80MWilliam Saliba, 2024-12-16: €80MWilliam Saliba, 2025-05-30: €80MWilliam Saliba, 2025-12-09: €90MWilliam Saliba, 2026-06-03: €100MAchraf Hakimi, 2016-09-04: €250kAchraf Hakimi, 2017-02-02: €250kAchraf Hakimi, 2017-03-31: €300kAchraf Hakimi, 2017-06-30: €300kAchraf Hakimi, 2018-01-01: €5MAchraf Hakimi, 2018-05-30: €5MAchraf Hakimi, 2018-07-16: €7.5MAchraf Hakimi, 2018-10-22: €11MAchraf Hakimi, 2018-12-18: €25MAchraf Hakimi, 2019-03-06: €30MAchraf Hakimi, 2019-06-05: €30MAchraf Hakimi, 2019-12-17: €45MAchraf Hakimi, 2020-03-11: €60MAchraf Hakimi, 2020-04-08: €54MAchraf Hakimi, 2020-10-29: €50MAchraf Hakimi, 2020-12-29: €50MAchraf Hakimi, 2021-06-03: €60MAchraf Hakimi, 2021-10-08: €70MAchraf Hakimi, 2021-12-16: €70MAchraf Hakimi, 2022-05-30: €65MAchraf Hakimi, 2022-11-02: €65MAchraf Hakimi, 2022-12-23: €70MAchraf Hakimi, 2023-06-27: €65MAchraf Hakimi, 2023-12-18: €65MAchraf Hakimi, 2024-06-03: €60MAchraf Hakimi, 2024-12-10: €60MAchraf Hakimi, 2025-03-24: €65MAchraf Hakimi, 2025-06-03: €80MAchraf Hakimi, 2025-12-15: €80MAchraf Hakimi, 2026-06-01: €80MNuno Mendes, 2020-08-17: €7MNuno Mendes, 2020-10-22: €12MNuno Mendes, 2021-01-28: €17MNuno Mendes, 2021-03-25: €25MNuno Mendes, 2021-06-01: €40MNuno Mendes, 2021-12-16: €40MNuno Mendes, 2022-05-30: €40MNuno Mendes, 2022-09-19: €50MNuno Mendes, 2022-11-02: €60MNuno Mendes, 2023-03-27: €65MNuno Mendes, 2023-06-27: €65MNuno Mendes, 2023-12-18: €60MNuno Mendes, 2024-06-03: €55MNuno Mendes, 2024-12-10: €55MNuno Mendes, 2025-06-03: €70MNuno Mendes, 2025-10-10: €75MNuno Mendes, 2025-12-15: €75MNuno Mendes, 2026-06-01: €80MWillian Pacho, 2020-10-14: €100kWillian Pacho, 2020-12-30: €300kWillian Pacho, 2021-06-30: €2.5MWillian Pacho, 2021-12-30: €2.5MWillian Pacho, 2022-04-12: €2.2MWillian Pacho, 2022-09-07: €3MWillian Pacho, 2022-11-04: €3.5MWillian Pacho, 2023-03-22: €9MWillian Pacho, 2023-06-09: €11MWillian Pacho, 2023-10-18: €17MWillian Pacho, 2023-12-14: €24MWillian Pacho, 2024-03-27: €30MWillian Pacho, 2024-05-29: €35MWillian Pacho, 2024-10-07: €40MWillian Pacho, 2024-12-10: €40MWillian Pacho, 2025-03-24: €45MWillian Pacho, 2025-06-03: €65MWillian Pacho, 2025-12-15: €70MWillian Pacho, 2026-06-01: €80M
Published Transfermarkt valuations only, drawn as steps; nothing is interpolated between observations.