FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Terminal Players

Comparison Studio

Two to four players on one scale: observed value, both models, what moves each estimate, and the record behind it.

  • CMKhéphren Thuram
  • DMIdrissa Gueye

Value ladder

observed value against Model A and Model B, one row per player
  1. Thuram€38MA €34M · B €38.8M
  2. Gueye€500kA €1.2M · B €243k
Observed Model A Model BEach row is one player (their marker and colour on the left). Log scale, euros; dashed lines: the €2M / €10M / €30M tier boundaries.

What moves each estimate

Model A, input by input

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for each player…

Performance profile

model inputs, two years to the valuation date
Goals per 90Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.13
0.03
Assists per 90Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.18
0.10
Minutes, two yearsTotal club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
6,468
5,369
StartsShare of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
78%
95%
Minutes, last 365 daysClub minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
3,394
2,102
European club minutesShare of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
21%
0%

Raw values from the two years to each valuation date, on an axis from zero. Shaded bands: the 10th to 90th percentile of each player's positional peers.

The record

Thuram dossier · Gueye dossier
FactThuramGueye
RoleCentral Midfield (Midfield)Defensive Midfield (Midfield)
LeagueSerie APremier League
ClubJuventus FCEverton FC
Age2536
Height192 cm174 cm
FootRightRight
Appearances9665
Minutes6,4685,369
Started75 of 9662 of 65
Goals / assists9 / 132 / 6
Observed value€38M · World Class€500k · Emerging
Model A€34M · held-out€1.2M · held-out
Model B€38.8M · held-out€243k · held-out

Valuation history

€200k€500k€1M€2M€5M€10M€20MKhéphren Thuram, 2019-02-15: €500kKhéphren Thuram, 2019-06-03: €500kKhéphren Thuram, 2019-09-27: €1.5MKhéphren Thuram, 2019-12-19: €3MKhéphren Thuram, 2020-03-13: €4MKhéphren Thuram, 2020-04-08: €3.6MKhéphren Thuram, 2020-10-15: €5.5MKhéphren Thuram, 2021-04-09: €9MKhéphren Thuram, 2021-06-04: €9MKhéphren Thuram, 2021-12-16: €10MKhéphren Thuram, 2022-03-23: €14MKhéphren Thuram, 2022-05-30: €17MKhéphren Thuram, 2022-09-19: €25MKhéphren Thuram, 2022-11-02: €25MKhéphren Thuram, 2023-03-27: €32MKhéphren Thuram, 2023-06-27: €40MKhéphren Thuram, 2023-12-18: €40MKhéphren Thuram, 2024-03-19: €35MKhéphren Thuram, 2024-06-03: €35MKhéphren Thuram, 2024-12-18: €35MKhéphren Thuram, 2025-03-25: €40MKhéphren Thuram, 2025-06-17: €40MKhéphren Thuram, 2025-12-23: €40MKhéphren Thuram, 2026-05-29: €38MIdrissa Gueye, 2010-07-16: €150kIdrissa Gueye, 2010-12-28: €500kIdrissa Gueye, 2011-05-24: €650kIdrissa Gueye, 2011-12-24: €1.8MIdrissa Gueye, 2012-05-23: €2.5MIdrissa Gueye, 2013-01-07: €3MIdrissa Gueye, 2013-05-30: €4MIdrissa Gueye, 2014-01-14: €4.5MIdrissa Gueye, 2014-02-05: €5MIdrissa Gueye, 2014-08-07: €5.5MIdrissa Gueye, 2015-01-14: €6MIdrissa Gueye, 2015-06-06: €7.5MIdrissa Gueye, 2015-10-14: €9MIdrissa Gueye, 2016-02-09: €9MIdrissa Gueye, 2016-10-24: €11MIdrissa Gueye, 2017-02-20: €12MIdrissa Gueye, 2017-06-28: €18MIdrissa Gueye, 2018-01-02: €18MIdrissa Gueye, 2018-05-28: €20MIdrissa Gueye, 2018-12-19: €20MIdrissa Gueye, 2019-06-13: €25MIdrissa Gueye, 2019-09-27: €30MIdrissa Gueye, 2019-12-19: €30MIdrissa Gueye, 2020-04-08: €24MIdrissa Gueye, 2020-10-15: €24MIdrissa Gueye, 2021-01-07: €18MIdrissa Gueye, 2021-06-04: €15MIdrissa Gueye, 2021-12-16: €13MIdrissa Gueye, 2022-05-30: €12MIdrissa Gueye, 2022-09-15: €10MIdrissa Gueye, 2022-11-03: €8MIdrissa Gueye, 2023-06-20: €5MIdrissa Gueye, 2023-12-19: €4MIdrissa Gueye, 2024-05-27: €3MIdrissa Gueye, 2024-10-01: €2MIdrissa Gueye, 2024-12-16: €2MIdrissa Gueye, 2025-05-30: €1.5MIdrissa Gueye, 2025-12-09: €1MIdrissa Gueye, 2026-06-03: €500k
Published Transfermarkt valuations only, drawn as steps; nothing is interpolated between observations.