FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Terminal Players

Comparison Studio

Two to four players on one scale: observed value, both models, what moves each estimate, and the record behind it.

  • CFErling Haaland
  • RWLamine Yamal
  • CFKylian Mbappé
  • RWMichael Olise

Value ladder

observed value against Model A and Model B, one row per player
  1. Haaland€200MA €159M · B €101M
  2. Yamal€200MA €130M · B €78.4M
  3. Mbappé€180MA €141M · B €89.3M
  4. Olise€150MA €127M · B €78.7M
Observed Model A Model BEach row is one player (their marker and colour on the left). Log scale, euros; dashed lines: the €2M / €10M / €30M tier boundaries.

What moves each estimate

Model A, input by input

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for each player…

Performance profile

model inputs, two years to the valuation date
Goals per 90Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.80
0.46
0.92
0.49
Assists per 90Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.14
0.47
0.12
0.61
Minutes, two yearsTotal club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
8,097
8,255
8,303
7,767
StartsShare of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
93%
93%
90%
82%
Minutes, last 365 daysClub minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
4,311
3,702
3,756
4,285
European club minutesShare of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
22%
24%
27%
32%

Raw values from the two years to each valuation date, on an axis from zero. Shaded bands: the 10th to 90th percentile of each player's positional peers.

The record

Haaland dossier · Yamal dossier · Mbappé dossier · Olise dossier
FactHaalandYamalMbappéOlise
RoleCentre-Forward (Attack)Right Winger (Attack)Centre-Forward (Attack)Right Winger (Attack)
LeaguePremier LeagueLaLigaLaLigaBundesliga
ClubManchester CityFC BarcelonaReal MadridBayern Munich
Age25182724
Height195 cm183 cm180 cm180 cm
FootLeftLeftRightLeft
Appearances99100102106
Minutes8,0978,2558,3037,767
Started92 of 9993 of 10092 of 10287 of 106
Goals / assists72 / 1342 / 4385 / 1142 / 53
Observed value€200M · World Class€200M · World Class€180M · World Class€150M · World Class
Model A€159M · held-out€130M · held-out€141M · held-out€127M · held-out
Model B€101M · held-out€78.4M · held-out€89.3M · held-out€78.7M · held-out

Valuation history

€100k€1M€10M€100MErling Haaland, 2016-12-18: €200kErling Haaland, 2017-12-23: €300kErling Haaland, 2018-09-10: €2MErling Haaland, 2018-12-30: €5MErling Haaland, 2019-06-03: €5MErling Haaland, 2019-09-03: €12MErling Haaland, 2019-11-07: €30MErling Haaland, 2019-12-16: €45MErling Haaland, 2020-02-11: €60MErling Haaland, 2020-03-11: €80MErling Haaland, 2020-04-08: €72MErling Haaland, 2020-09-16: €80MErling Haaland, 2020-11-26: €100MErling Haaland, 2021-02-10: €110MErling Haaland, 2021-06-09: €130MErling Haaland, 2021-10-07: €150MErling Haaland, 2021-12-22: €150MErling Haaland, 2022-06-09: €150MErling Haaland, 2022-11-03: €170MErling Haaland, 2023-06-20: €180MErling Haaland, 2023-12-19: €180MErling Haaland, 2024-05-27: €180MErling Haaland, 2024-10-01: €200MErling Haaland, 2024-12-16: €200MErling Haaland, 2025-05-30: €180MErling Haaland, 2025-12-09: €200MErling Haaland, 2026-06-03: €200MLamine Yamal, 2023-08-21: €25MLamine Yamal, 2023-10-13: €50MLamine Yamal, 2023-12-22: €60MLamine Yamal, 2024-03-21: €75MLamine Yamal, 2024-06-07: €90MLamine Yamal, 2024-07-18: €120MLamine Yamal, 2024-10-11: €150MLamine Yamal, 2024-12-27: €180MLamine Yamal, 2025-06-09: €200MLamine Yamal, 2025-12-12: €200MLamine Yamal, 2026-06-05: €200MKylian Mbappé, 2015-12-02: €50kKylian Mbappé, 2016-02-04: €250kKylian Mbappé, 2016-04-09: €1MKylian Mbappé, 2016-07-13: €1.5MKylian Mbappé, 2016-11-01: €4MKylian Mbappé, 2017-01-16: €10MKylian Mbappé, 2017-06-01: €35MKylian Mbappé, 2017-10-12: €90MKylian Mbappé, 2018-01-24: €120MKylian Mbappé, 2018-06-04: €120MKylian Mbappé, 2018-07-16: €150MKylian Mbappé, 2018-10-24: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2018-12-17: €200MKylian Mbappé, 2019-06-03: €200MKylian Mbappé, 2019-12-19: €200MKylian Mbappé, 2020-04-08: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2020-10-15: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2021-04-09: €160MKylian Mbappé, 2021-06-01: €160MKylian Mbappé, 2021-12-16: €160MKylian Mbappé, 2022-05-30: €160MKylian Mbappé, 2022-11-02: €160MKylian Mbappé, 2022-12-23: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2023-06-27: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2023-12-18: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2024-06-03: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2024-12-27: €160MKylian Mbappé, 2025-03-21: €170MKylian Mbappé, 2025-06-09: €180MKylian Mbappé, 2025-12-12: €200MKylian Mbappé, 2026-06-05: €180MMichael Olise, 2019-10-17: €200kMichael Olise, 2020-02-27: €900kMichael Olise, 2020-04-08: €800kMichael Olise, 2020-10-15: €4.5MMichael Olise, 2020-12-22: €8MMichael Olise, 2021-03-10: €12MMichael Olise, 2021-06-30: €15MMichael Olise, 2021-12-23: €18MMichael Olise, 2022-03-29: €22MMichael Olise, 2022-06-15: €22MMichael Olise, 2022-11-03: €22MMichael Olise, 2023-03-16: €27MMichael Olise, 2023-06-20: €38MMichael Olise, 2023-10-09: €50MMichael Olise, 2023-12-19: €50MMichael Olise, 2024-05-27: €55MMichael Olise, 2024-10-09: €65MMichael Olise, 2024-12-20: €65MMichael Olise, 2025-03-27: €80MMichael Olise, 2025-06-05: €100MMichael Olise, 2025-10-14: €130MMichael Olise, 2025-12-19: €130MMichael Olise, 2026-03-20: €140MMichael Olise, 2026-05-27: €150M
Published Transfermarkt valuations only, drawn as steps; nothing is interpolated between observations.