FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Terminal Players

Comparison Studio

Two to four players on one scale: observed value, both models, what moves each estimate, and the record behind it.

  • GKGianluigi Donnarumma
  • GKJoan García
  • GKGregor Kobel
  • GKDiogo Costa

Value ladder

observed value against Model A and Model B, one row per player
  1. Donnarumma€45MA €42.1M · B €31.7M
  2. García€45MA €42M · B €21.5M
  3. Kobel€40MA €25.6M · B €32.5M
  4. Costa€40MA €27.8M · B €25.4M
Observed Model A Model BEach row is one player (their marker and colour on the left). Log scale, euros; dashed lines: the €2M / €10M / €30M tier boundaries.

What moves each estimate

Model A, input by input

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for each player…

Performance profile

model inputs, two years to the valuation date
Goals per 90Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
not a goalkeeper measure
not a goalkeeper measure
not a goalkeeper measure
not a goalkeeper measure
Assists per 90Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
not a goalkeeper measure
not a goalkeeper measure
not a goalkeeper measure
not a goalkeeper measure
Minutes, two yearsTotal club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
8,062
7,462
9,015
7,887
StartsShare of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100%
100%
100%
100%
Minutes, last 365 daysClub minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
4,500
4,042
4,710
3,987
European club minutesShare of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
35%
11%
29%
25%

Raw values from the two years to each valuation date, on an axis from zero. Shaded bands: the 10th to 90th percentile of each player's positional peers. Goalkeepers are not placed on the goals and assists axes.

The record

Donnarumma dossier · García dossier · Kobel dossier · Costa dossier
FactDonnarummaGarcíaKobelCosta
RoleGoalkeeper (Goalkeeper)Goalkeeper (Goalkeeper)Goalkeeper (Goalkeeper)Goalkeeper (Goalkeeper)
LeaguePremier LeagueLaLigaBundesligaLiga Portugal
ClubManchester CityFC BarcelonaBorussia DortmundFC Porto
Age27252826
Height196 cm194 cm196 cm188 cm
FootRightRightRightRight
Appearances908310088
Minutes8,0627,4629,0157,887
Started90 of 9083 of 83100 of 10088 of 88
Goals / assists––––
Observed value€45M · World Class€45M · World Class€40M · World Class€40M · World Class
Model A€42.1M · held-out€42M · held-out€25.6M · held-out€27.8M · held-out
Model B€31.7M · held-out€21.5M · held-out€32.5M · held-out€25.4M · held-out

Valuation history

€50k€100k€500k€1M€5M€10M€50MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2015-03-02: €300kGianluigi Donnarumma, 2015-06-17: €500kGianluigi Donnarumma, 2015-11-05: €1.5MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2016-01-04: €5MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2016-04-01: €8MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2016-07-15: €10MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2016-10-14: €15MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2017-01-02: €20MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2017-06-08: €25MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2017-12-29: €40MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2018-06-07: €40MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2018-12-20: €40MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2019-03-01: €50MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2019-06-06: €55MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2019-12-12: €55MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2020-04-08: €49.5MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2020-08-25: €60MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2020-12-29: €60MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2021-05-25: €60MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2021-07-15: €65MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2021-12-16: €65MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2022-05-30: €50MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2022-11-02: €50MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2023-06-27: €45MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2023-12-18: €40MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2024-06-03: €40MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2024-12-10: €35MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2025-06-03: €40MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2025-12-09: €45MGianluigi Donnarumma, 2026-06-03: €45MJoan García, 2019-11-21: €50kJoan García, 2019-12-20: €50kJoan García, 2020-10-08: €50kJoan García, 2021-01-08: €150kJoan García, 2021-06-30: €150kJoan García, 2021-12-30: €400kJoan García, 2022-06-03: €400kJoan García, 2022-11-07: €400kJoan García, 2023-06-13: €400kJoan García, 2023-12-20: €400kJoan García, 2024-06-24: €800kJoan García, 2024-10-11: €10MJoan García, 2024-12-27: €10MJoan García, 2025-03-21: €20MJoan García, 2025-06-09: €25MJoan García, 2025-12-12: €30MJoan García, 2026-03-16: €40MJoan García, 2026-06-05: €45MGregor Kobel, 2015-07-01: €25kGregor Kobel, 2016-02-13: €25kGregor Kobel, 2016-07-22: €100kGregor Kobel, 2017-02-07: €150kGregor Kobel, 2017-06-19: €400kGregor Kobel, 2017-12-28: €500kGregor Kobel, 2018-06-05: €500kGregor Kobel, 2018-10-22: €1MGregor Kobel, 2018-12-18: €1MGregor Kobel, 2019-03-06: €2.5MGregor Kobel, 2019-06-05: €6MGregor Kobel, 2019-12-13: €5MGregor Kobel, 2020-04-08: €4MGregor Kobel, 2020-09-16: €5.5MGregor Kobel, 2021-02-10: €8MGregor Kobel, 2021-05-25: €13MGregor Kobel, 2021-10-07: €18MGregor Kobel, 2021-12-22: €20MGregor Kobel, 2022-06-09: €22MGregor Kobel, 2022-11-09: €25MGregor Kobel, 2023-03-29: €35MGregor Kobel, 2023-06-22: €35MGregor Kobel, 2023-12-14: €40MGregor Kobel, 2024-05-29: €40MGregor Kobel, 2024-12-20: €40MGregor Kobel, 2025-06-05: €40MGregor Kobel, 2025-12-19: €40MGregor Kobel, 2026-05-27: €40MDiogo Costa, 2016-09-30: €25kDiogo Costa, 2017-06-30: €100kDiogo Costa, 2017-09-08: €500kDiogo Costa, 2018-02-23: €1MDiogo Costa, 2018-06-29: €2MDiogo Costa, 2019-02-12: €3MDiogo Costa, 2019-06-07: €4MDiogo Costa, 2019-12-30: €5MDiogo Costa, 2020-04-08: €4.5MDiogo Costa, 2020-08-17: €5MDiogo Costa, 2021-01-28: €6MDiogo Costa, 2021-05-21: €6MDiogo Costa, 2021-09-21: €10MDiogo Costa, 2021-12-27: €16MDiogo Costa, 2022-05-31: €25MDiogo Costa, 2022-11-01: €35MDiogo Costa, 2023-03-02: €45MDiogo Costa, 2023-06-16: €45MDiogo Costa, 2023-12-27: €45MDiogo Costa, 2024-06-06: €40MDiogo Costa, 2024-07-18: €45MDiogo Costa, 2024-12-19: €40MDiogo Costa, 2025-03-31: €38MDiogo Costa, 2025-05-30: €40MDiogo Costa, 2025-12-18: €40MDiogo Costa, 2026-05-28: €40M
Published Transfermarkt valuations only, drawn as steps; nothing is interpolated between observations.