FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portu

RWSpain · Girona FC

№ 99353Emerging €850k +0.34

Player dossierLaLiga

Portu

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Girona FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
167 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Portu at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Portu during training, estimates €850k: the market value is 41% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.41. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €475k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.34A €850k▲ +0.93B €475k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
1,459
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
12/44
Min / app
33
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Portu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €850k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Portu's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 9th, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 16th, European club minutes 65th9thGoals65thAssists30thMinutes8thStarts16thRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

6% this player0% attacker median65th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Aug 2014
Peak
€20M
Mar 2020
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MGirona FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, Girona FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-12€300kAlbacete Balompié
2015-01-08€500kAlbacete Balompié
2015-04-13€600kAlbacete Balompié
2015-07-01€800kAlbacete Balompié
2016-02-22€700kAlbacete Balompié
2016-07-15€700kGirona FC
2016-10-27€1MGirona FC
2017-01-24€1.5MGirona FC
2017-06-29€1.8MGirona FC
2018-01-01€5MGirona FC
2018-03-22€10MGirona FC
2018-05-30€10MGirona FC
2018-12-21€10MGirona FC
2019-06-11€10MGirona FC
2019-12-20€15MReal Sociedad
2020-03-05€20MReal Sociedad
2020-04-08€16MReal Sociedad
2020-10-08€16MReal Sociedad
2021-01-05€20MReal Sociedad
2021-06-10€20MReal Sociedad
2021-12-30€15MReal Sociedad
2022-03-21€12MReal Sociedad
2022-06-03€9MReal Sociedad
2022-09-23€6MGetafe CF
2022-11-07€5MGetafe CF
2023-03-23€4.5MGetafe CF
2023-06-13€3.5MGetafe CF
2023-12-22€3.5MGirona FC
2024-06-07€3.5MGirona FC
2024-12-27€2.5MGirona FC
2025-06-09€1.8MGirona FC
2025-12-12€1.5MGirona FC
2026-06-05€1.2MGirona FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.345

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 15% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Portu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).