Jannik
Vestergaard
CBDenmark · Leicester City
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
JannikVestergaard
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Leicester City
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 199 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Vestergaard at €1M. Model A, which never saw Vestergaard during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 13% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €309k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 19
- Minutes
- 1,450
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 17/19
- Min / app
- 76
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vestergaard…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
89% this player83% defender median68th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Aug 2010
- Peak
- €20M
- Aug 2018
- Model target
- €1M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 42
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €1M, Leicester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-08-20 | €50k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
| 2011-06-21 | €100k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
| 2011-06-29 | €250k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
| 2012-01-23 | €750k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2012-03-05 | €1.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2012-06-29 | €3M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2012-10-23 | €2.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2013-01-13 | €2.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2013-06-30 | €3.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2014-02-12 | €3M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2014-07-10 | €3M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2015-02-04 | €2.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2015-03-29 | €3M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2015-07-01 | €4.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2016-02-15 | €7M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2016-07-22 | €10M | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 2017-02-07 | €10M | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 2017-06-19 | €12M | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 2017-12-28 | €14M | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 2018-06-05 | €14M | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 2018-08-13 | €20M | Southampton FC |
| 2018-12-19 | €20M | Southampton FC |
| 2019-06-13 | €20M | Southampton FC |
| 2019-12-10 | €18M | Southampton FC |
| 2020-03-09 | €15M | Southampton FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €12M | Southampton FC |
| 2020-10-13 | €12M | Southampton FC |
| 2020-12-17 | €15M | Southampton FC |
| 2021-03-18 | €18M | Southampton FC |
| 2021-05-26 | €18M | Southampton FC |
| 2021-12-23 | €15M | Leicester City |
| 2022-06-15 | €13M | Leicester City |
| 2022-09-15 | €9M | Leicester City |
| 2022-11-03 | €7M | Leicester City |
| 2023-03-16 | €5M | Leicester City |
| 2023-06-20 | €4M | Leicester City |
| 2023-12-21 | €3.5M | Leicester City |
| 2024-05-24 | €3M | Leicester City |
| 2024-12-16 | €3M | Leicester City |
| 2025-05-30 | €2M | Leicester City |
| 2025-12-03 | €1.8M | Leicester City |
| 2026-05-28 | €1M | Leicester City |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.143
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 6% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Vestergaard appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- DohertyRBWolverhampton Wanderers · Premier League€1M
- MorrisRWLuton Town · Premier League€1M
- HendersonDMBrentford FC · Premier League€1.2M
- StephensCBSouthampton FC · Premier League€1.2M
- OtamendiCBSL Benfica · defenders€1M
- AzpilicuetaCBSevilla FC · defenders€1M
- KaravaevRBDynamo Kyiv · defenders€1M
- BerchicheLBAthletic Bilbao · defenders€1M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).