FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Luís Guilherme

Luís

Guilherme

RWBrazil · Sporting CP

№ 991800Elite €7.5M +0.47

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

LuísGuilherme

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
20
Height
175 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Guilherme at €12M. Model A, which never saw Guilherme during training, estimates €7.5M: the market value is 61% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.47A €7.5M▲ +0.93B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
980
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
10/33
Min / app
30
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Guilherme…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €7.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Luís Guilherme's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 12th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 30th, European club minutes 68th12thGoals6thAssists18thMinutes11thStarts30thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

8% this player0% attacker median68th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.5M
Feb 2023
Peak
€24M
Jun 2024
Model target
€12M
May 2026
Valuations
13
2 club changes
May 2026€12MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €12M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-02-17€1.5MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2023-04-07€3MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2023-07-25€7MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2023-12-11€17MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2024-03-28€17MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2024-06-17€24MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2024-12-16€22MWest Ham United
2025-03-18€18MWest Ham United
2025-05-30€15MWest Ham United
2025-10-17€12MWest Ham United
2025-12-09€10MWest Ham United
2026-03-19€12MSporting CP
2026-05-28€12MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.475

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 88% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 79% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Guilherme appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).