FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Facundo Buonanotte

Facundo

Buonanotte

AMArgentina · Leeds United

№ 983989Elite €13.7M −0.13

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

FacundoBuonanotte

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
21
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Buonanotte at €12M. Model A, which never saw Buonanotte during training, estimates €13.7M: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.13A €13.7M▼ −0.09B €13.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
2,204
Goals
7
Assists
5
Started
23/45
Min / app
49
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Buonanotte…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €13.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Facundo Buonanotte's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 41st, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 16th, European club minutes 68th93rdGoals85thAssists41stMinutes23rdStarts16thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.29 this player0.08 midfielder median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2022
Peak
€22M
Dec 2024
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
13
4 club changes
Jun 2026€12MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-02-08€50kCA Rosario Central
2022-05-24€50kCA Rosario Central
2022-09-06€6MCA Rosario Central
2022-10-26€9MCA Rosario Central
2023-06-20€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-03-14€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€22MLeicester City
2025-05-30€20MLeicester City
2025-12-09€18MChelsea FC
2026-03-09€16MLeeds United
2026-06-03€12MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.130

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 36% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Buonanotte appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).