FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Oluwaseun

Adewumi

AMAustria · Cercle Brugge

№ 982081Emerging €2.3M −1.06

Player dossierPro League

OluwaseunAdewumi

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Cercle Brugge
League
Pro League
Nationality
Austria
Age
21
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Adewumi at €800k. Model A, which never saw Adewumi during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 65% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.06A €2.3M▼ −1.82B €4.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
3,379
Goals
10
Assists
4
Started
37/60
Min / app
56
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Adewumi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €2.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Oluwaseun Adewumi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 55th, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 36th, Minutes, last 365 days 52nd, European club minutes 30th91stGoals55thAssists63rdMinutes36thStarts52ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.27 this player0.08 midfielder median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2022
Peak
€800k
Jun 2026
Model target
€800k
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
Jun 2026€800kCercle BruggeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €800k, Cercle Brugge. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-07-20€25kFloridsdorfer AC
2022-11-17€75kFloridsdorfer AC
2023-06-05€125kFloridsdorfer AC
2023-09-11€200kFloridsdorfer AC
2023-12-05€200kFloridsdorfer AC
2024-05-28€300kFloridsdorfer AC
2024-12-03€300kDundee FC
2025-06-17€350kDundee FC
2025-12-10€600kCercle Brugge
2026-06-04€800kCercle Brugge

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.059

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 22% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Adewumi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).