Nicolás
Arévalo
DMColombia · Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Player dossierPremier Liha
NicolásArévalo
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
- League
- Premier Liha
- Nationality
- Colombia
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 2 Jun 2026
Premier LihaReading the valuation
The market values Arévalo at €900k. Model A, which never saw Arévalo during training, estimates €656k: the market value is 37% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €545k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 14
- Minutes
- 915
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 12/14
- Min / app
- 65
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Arévalo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
86% this player69% midfielder median80th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Apr 2023
- Peak
- €1M
- Sept 2025
- Model target
- €900k
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €900k, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-12 | €50k | Millonarios FC |
| 2023-07-07 | €200k | Millonarios FC |
| 2023-12-07 | €200k | Millonarios FC |
| 2024-06-11 | €200k | Millonarios FC |
| 2024-12-10 | €200k | Millonarios FC |
| 2025-04-07 | €350k | Millonarios FC |
| 2025-06-20 | €750k | Millonarios FC |
| 2025-09-15 | €1M | Millonarios FC |
| 2025-12-05 | €1M | Millonarios FC |
| 2026-06-02 | €900k | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.316
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liha414 players · median €400k
Valued above 75% of the 414 Premier Liha players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 30% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Arévalo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- LytvynenkoDMMetalist 1925 Kharkiv · Premier Liha€900k
- DrambayevLBLNZ Cherkasy · Premier Liha€900k
- TellesDMKolos Kovalivka · Premier Liha€900k
- GagnidzeCMKolos Kovalivka · Premier Liha€900k
- BittencourtCMSV Werder Bremen · midfielders€900k
- SafuriCMAntalyaspor · midfielders€900k
- BjørloCMKonyaspor · midfielders€900k
- MendelDMBaltika Kaliningrad · midfielders€900k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).