FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Junior

Kroupi

CFFrance · AFC Bournemouth

№ 955357World Class €65.2M +0.07

Player dossierPremier League

JuniorKroupi

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
AFC Bournemouth
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
19
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kroupi at €70M. Model A, which never saw Kroupi during training, estimates €65.2M: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €20.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €65.2M▲ +1.21B €20.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
1,839
Goals
13
Assists
0
Started
23/35
Min / app
53
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kroupi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €70M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €70MModel A €65.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Junior Kroupi's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 40th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 28th96thGoals6thAssists40thMinutes62ndStarts68thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.64 this player0.26 attacker median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Jun 2023
Peak
€70M
Jun 2026
Model target
€70M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€70MAFC BournemouthValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €70M, AFC Bournemouth. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-06-27€400kFC Lorient B
2023-10-16€8MFC Lorient
2023-12-18€15MFC Lorient
2024-06-03€15MFC Lorient
2024-10-03€10MFC Lorient
2024-12-04€10MFC Lorient
2025-03-12€12MFC Lorient
2025-06-02€15MFC Lorient
2025-12-09€22MAFC Bournemouth
2026-03-09€40MAFC Bournemouth
2026-06-03€70MAFC Bournemouth

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.071

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 94% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€70MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 98% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€70MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kroupi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).