Afonso
Moreira
LWPortugal · Olympique Lyon
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierLigue 1
AfonsoMoreira
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- Olympique Lyon
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Moreira at €20M. Model A, which never saw Moreira during training, estimates €26.3M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €21.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 36
- Minutes
- 2,111
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 10
- Started
- 21/36
- Min / app
- 59
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moreira…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Assists per 90
Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.43 this player0.15 attacker median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €400k
- Mar 2024
- Peak
- €20M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €20M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 6
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €20M, Olympique Lyon. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-08 | €400k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2024-06-06 | €400k | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2025-05-30 | €400k | Sporting CP B |
| 2025-12-15 | €5M | Olympique Lyon |
| 2026-03-27 | €10M | Olympique Lyon |
| 2026-06-01 | €20M | Olympique Lyon |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.273
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 85% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Moreira appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SarrCBRC Lens · Ligue 1€20M
- WeahRMOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€20M
- SulcAMOlympique Lyon · Ligue 1€20M
- AblineCFFC Nantes · Ligue 1€20M
- SanéRWGalatasaray · attackers€20M
- GrealishLWEverton FC · attackers€20M
- IwobiLWFulham FC · attackers€20M
- AktürkoğluLWFenerbahce · attackers€20M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).