FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Danila

Godyaev

CMRussia · Lokomotiv Moscow

№ 948363Emerging €706k +0.13

Player dossierPremier Liga

DanilaGodyaev

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Lokomotiv Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
22
Height
170 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Godyaev at €800k. Model A, which never saw Godyaev during training, estimates €706k: the market value is 13% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €721k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.13A €706k▲ +0.10B €721k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
771
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
10/19
Min / app
41
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Godyaev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €706k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Danila Godyaev's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 59th, Minutes, two years 8th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals59thAssists8thMinutes24thStarts4thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.09 midfielder median59th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Mar 2024
Peak
€1.5M
Jun 2025
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
7
1 club change
May 2026€800kLokomotiv MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Lokomotiv Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-03-18€75kArsenal Dzerzhinsk
2024-07-02€250kArsenal Dzerzhinsk
2024-12-06€275kArsenal Dzerzhinsk
2025-03-19€700kLokomotiv Moscow
2025-06-04€1.5MLokomotiv Moscow
2025-12-16€1.2MLokomotiv Moscow
2026-05-26€800kLokomotiv Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.125

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 33% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Godyaev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).