FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Chris Rigg

Chris

Rigg

AMEngland · Sunderland AFC

№ 947411Elite €13.4M +0.62

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

ChrisRigg

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Sunderland AFC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
18
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rigg at €25M. Model A, which never saw Rigg during training, estimates €13.4M: the market value is 87% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.62A €13.4M▲ +2.52B €2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
939
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
13/20
Min / app
47
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rigg…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €13.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Chris Rigg's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th55thGoals51stAssists12thMinutes42ndStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.10 this player0.08 midfielder median55th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Oct 2023
Peak
€25M
Oct 2025
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
0 club changes
Jun 2026€25MSunderland AFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, Sunderland AFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-10-27€300kSunderland AFC
2023-12-21€300kSunderland AFC
2024-05-24€300kSunderland AFC
2024-09-24€9MSunderland AFC
2024-12-30€12MSunderland AFC
2025-03-28€16MSunderland AFC
2025-05-27€20MSunderland AFC
2025-10-17€25MSunderland AFC
2025-12-09€25MSunderland AFC
2026-06-03€25MSunderland AFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.624

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 63% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rigg appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).