Willi
Orbán
CBHungary · RB Leipzig
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
WilliOrbán
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- RB Leipzig
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Hungary
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Orbán at €5M. Model A, which never saw Orbán during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 25% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 75
- Minutes
- 6,704
- Goals
- 8
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 75/75
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 9Y 2R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Orbán…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player83% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2011
- Peak
- €20M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 1 club change
May 2026: €5M, RB Leipzig. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-07-03 | €100k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2011-09-01 | €150k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2012-01-23 | €250k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2012-06-29 | €250k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2013-01-04 | €200k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2013-06-29 | €450k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2013-10-14 | €900k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2014-01-20 | €900k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2014-06-30 | €900k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-01-13 | €1.5M | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-03-29 | €1.8M | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-07-01 | €2.5M | RB Leipzig |
| 2016-02-11 | €2.5M | RB Leipzig |
| 2016-07-22 | €3M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-02-07 | €6M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-06-19 | €8M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-12-28 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-04-04 | €15M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-06-05 | €15M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-12-18 | €15M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-06-05 | €20M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-12-17 | €20M | RB Leipzig |
| 2020-04-08 | €16M | RB Leipzig |
| 2020-09-16 | €12M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-02-10 | €14M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-06-01 | €16M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-12-22 | €14M | RB Leipzig |
| 2022-06-09 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2022-11-09 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2023-06-22 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2023-12-14 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2024-05-29 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2024-12-20 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2025-06-05 | €8M | RB Leipzig |
| 2025-12-19 | €6M | RB Leipzig |
| 2026-05-27 | €5M | RB Leipzig |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.224
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Orbán appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GinterCBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€5M
- GuerreiroLBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€5M
- VavroCBVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€5M
- SkhiriDMEintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga€5M
- TarkowskiCBEverton FC · defenders€5M
- LindelöfCBAston Villa · defenders€5M
- MartínLBGenoa CFC · defenders€5M
- NicolaisenCBFC Toulouse · defenders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).