FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Rafiu

Durosinmi

CFNigeria · Pisa Sporting Club

№ 935760Established €4.4M +0.46

Player dossierSerie A

RafiuDurosinmi

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Pisa Sporting Club
League
Serie A
Nationality
Nigeria
Age
23
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Durosinmi at €7M. Model A, which never saw Durosinmi during training, estimates €4.4M: the market value is 58% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.46A €4.4M▼ −0.18B €8.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,417
Goals
7
Assists
3
Started
16/26
Min / app
55
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Durosinmi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €4.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Rafiu Durosinmi's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 82nd, Assists per 90 67th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 45th, European club minutes 100th82ndGoals67thAssists29thMinutes54thStarts45thRecent100thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

70% this player0% attacker median100th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
Dec 2021
Peak
€7.5M
Dec 2025
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
13
3 club changes
May 2026€7MPisa Sporting ClubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, Pisa Sporting Club. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-12-26€125kMFK Karvina U19
2022-06-22€200kMFK Karvina
2022-12-14€250kMFK Karvina
2023-06-20€700kFC Viktoria Plzen
2023-09-20€2MFC Viktoria Plzen
2023-12-20€5MFC Viktoria Plzen
2024-06-05€4.5MFC Viktoria Plzen
2024-12-20€4MFC Viktoria Plzen
2025-04-01€7MFC Viktoria Plzen
2025-06-17€7MFC Viktoria Plzen
2025-09-23€6.5MFC Viktoria Plzen
2025-12-22€7.5MFC Viktoria Plzen
2026-05-29€7MPisa Sporting Club

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.459

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 55% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 70% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Durosinmi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).