FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Giannis

Doiranlis

CMGreece · Panserraikos

№ 934991Emerging €584k −0.38

Player dossierSuper League

GiannisDoiranlis

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Panserraikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
23
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Doiranlis at €400k. Model A, which never saw Doiranlis during training, estimates €584k: the market value is 32% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €844k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.38A €584k▼ −0.75B €844k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
43
Minutes
2,564
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
29/43
Min / app
60
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Doiranlis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €584k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Giannis Doiranlis's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 47th, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists49thMinutes47thStarts33rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,564 this player2,607 midfielder median49th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2023
Peak
€400k
Jun 2026
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
9
2 club changes
Jun 2026€400kPanserraikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Panserraikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-06-19€50kPOT Iraklis Thessaloniki
2023-12-28€100kPOT Iraklis Thessaloniki
2024-03-13€125kPOT Iraklis Thessaloniki
2024-05-23€150kPOT Iraklis Thessaloniki
2024-09-26€250kPAS Lamia 1964
2024-12-18€300kPAS Lamia 1964
2025-05-23€350kPAS Lamia 1964
2025-12-12€350kPanserraikos
2026-06-04€400kPanserraikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.379

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 29% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Doiranlis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).