FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Oscar Gloukh

Oscar

Gloukh

AMIsrael · Ajax Amsterdam

№ 930571Elite €9.4M +0.32

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierEredivisie

OscarGloukh

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Ajax Amsterdam
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Israel
Age
22
Height
171 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gloukh at €13M. Model A, which never saw Gloukh during training, estimates €9.4M: the market value is 38% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.32A €9.4M▼ −0.19B €15.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
3,482
Goals
10
Assists
10
Started
39/54
Min / app
64
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gloukh…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €13M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €13MModel A €9.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Oscar Gloukh's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 78th, European club minutes 99th90thGoals93rdAssists65thMinutes56thStarts78thRecent99thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

53% this player0% midfielder median99th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jun 2022
Peak
€25M
May 2024
Model target
€13M
May 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
May 2026€13MAjax AmsterdamValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €13M, Ajax Amsterdam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-04€500kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2022-09-24€3.5MMaccabi Tel Aviv
2022-12-20€4.5MMaccabi Tel Aviv
2023-03-20€7MRed Bull Salzburg
2023-06-12€8MRed Bull Salzburg
2023-07-12€10MRed Bull Salzburg
2023-12-11€15MRed Bull Salzburg
2024-03-11€20MRed Bull Salzburg
2024-05-21€25MRed Bull Salzburg
2024-12-17€22MRed Bull Salzburg
2025-06-06€20MRed Bull Salzburg
2025-12-02€18MAjax Amsterdam
2026-03-11€15MAjax Amsterdam
2026-05-28€13MAjax Amsterdam

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.319

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 94% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 83% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€13MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gloukh appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).