FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Jonatan

Lindekilde

CMDenmark · FC Fredericia

№ 926991Emerging €471k +0.16

Player dossierSuperliga

JonatanLindekilde

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Fredericia
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
20
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lindekilde at €550k. Model A, which never saw Lindekilde during training, estimates €471k: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €792k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €471k▼ −0.36B €792k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
9
Minutes
460
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
5/9
Min / app
51
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lindekilde…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €550k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €550kModel A €471k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jonatan Lindekilde's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 82nd, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 30th82ndGoals83rdAssists1stMinutes28thStarts11thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.20 this player0.09 midfielder median83rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Dec 2024
Peak
€550k
May 2026
Model target
€550k
May 2026
Valuations
4
0 club changes
May 2026€550kFC FredericiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €550k, FC Fredericia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-12-09€400kFC Fredericia
2025-06-16€400kFC Fredericia
2025-12-15€400kFC Fredericia
2026-05-25€550kFC Fredericia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.156

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 32% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€550kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lindekilde appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).