FairValue

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Portrait of Aaron Cresswell

Aaron

Cresswell

LBEngland · Stoke City

№ 92571Emerging €345k +0.27

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AaronCresswell

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Stoke City
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
35
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Cresswell at €450k. Model A, which never saw Cresswell during training, estimates €345k: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €228k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.27A €345k▲ +0.68B €228k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,554
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
17/33
Min / app
47
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cresswell…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €345k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Aaron Cresswell's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 24th, Starts 9th, Minutes, last 365 days 22nd, European club minutes 83rd69thGoals17thAssists24thMinutes9thStarts22ndRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

19% this player0% defender median83rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Apr 2010
Peak
€12M
Aug 2016
Model target
€450k
Dec 2025
Valuations
33
3 club changes
Dec 2025€450kStoke CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €450k, Stoke City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-04-07€50kTranmere Rovers
2011-09-14€200kIpswich Town
2012-02-07€500kIpswich Town
2012-06-22€750kIpswich Town
2013-03-02€750kIpswich Town
2013-07-12€900kIpswich Town
2014-01-08€1.5MIpswich Town
2014-08-12€4MWest Ham United
2015-02-12€7MWest Ham United
2015-07-01€8MWest Ham United
2016-02-09€10MWest Ham United
2016-08-01€12MWest Ham United
2017-02-20€12MWest Ham United
2017-06-28€12MWest Ham United
2018-01-02€12MWest Ham United
2018-05-28€12MWest Ham United
2018-12-19€10MWest Ham United
2019-06-13€10MWest Ham United
2019-09-12€8MWest Ham United
2019-12-10€8MWest Ham United
2020-04-08€6.5MWest Ham United
2020-10-13€6.5MWest Ham United
2021-03-18€6MWest Ham United
2021-06-03€5MWest Ham United
2021-12-23€4MWest Ham United
2022-06-15€3MWest Ham United
2022-11-03€2.5MWest Ham United
2023-06-20€1.2MWest Ham United
2023-12-19€900kWest Ham United
2024-05-27€900kWest Ham United
2024-12-16€700kWest Ham United
2025-05-30€500kWest Ham United
2025-12-03€450kStoke City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.266

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 3% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 17% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cresswell appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).