FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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André

Luiz

RWBrazil · Olympiacos Piraeus

№ 919262Established €4M +0.41

Player dossierSuper League

AndréLuiz

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Olympiacos Piraeus
League
Super League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
24
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Luiz at €6M. Model A, which never saw Luiz during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 51% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.51. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.41A €4M▲ +0.44B €3.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,667
Goals
9
Assists
9
Started
40/53
Min / app
69
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Luiz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

André Luiz's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 76th, Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 77th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 58th42ndGoals76thAssists76thMinutes77thStarts68thRecent58thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

75% this player59% attacker median77th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2023
Peak
€6M
Mar 2026
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
3 club changes
Jun 2026€6MOlympiacos PiraeusValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-07-25€150kCR Flamengo
2023-12-27€300kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-03-08€400kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-06-06€600kCF Estrela Amadora
2024-12-19€1.5MCF Estrela Amadora
2025-03-31€2MRio Ave FC
2025-05-30€2.5MRio Ave FC
2025-12-18€4MRio Ave FC
2026-03-06€6MOlympiacos Piraeus
2026-06-04€6MOlympiacos Piraeus

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.411

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 95% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Luiz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).