FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ruslan

Bart

RWRussia · FC Sochi

№ 918824Emerging €434k −0.37

Player dossierPremier Liga

RuslanBart

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
FC Sochi
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
20
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bart at €300k. Model A, which never saw Bart during training, estimates €434k: the market value is 31% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.37A €434k▼ −1.23B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
577
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
6/14
Min / app
41
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bart…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €434k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ruslan Bart's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 92nd, Minutes, two years 4th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals92ndAssists4thMinutes24thStarts18thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.31 this player0.15 attacker median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jun 2024
Peak
€400k
Dec 2025
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
6
1 club change
May 2026€300kFC SochiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, FC Sochi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-06-14€200kAkron Tolyatti
2024-09-18€300kFC Sochi
2024-12-04€350kFC Sochi
2025-06-02€350kFC Sochi
2025-12-16€400kFC Sochi
2026-05-26€300kFC Sochi

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.370

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 5% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 8% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bart appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).