FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Pablo

Marín

AMSpain · Real Sociedad

№ 907813Established €9.2M −0.27

Player dossierLaLiga

PabloMarín

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Sociedad
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
22
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Marín at €7M. Model A, which never saw Marín during training, estimates €9.2M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.27A €9.2M▼ −0.69B €13.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
78
Minutes
3,990
Goals
3
Assists
5
Started
41/78
Min / app
51
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marín…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €9.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Pablo Marín's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 43rd, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 74th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 59th, European club minutes 76th43rdGoals57thAssists74thMinutes24thStarts59thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

14% this player0% midfielder median76th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Oct 2021
Peak
€8M
Jun 2025
Model target
€7M
Jun 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
Jun 2026€7MReal SociedadValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €7M, Real Sociedad. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-10-20€200kReal Sociedad C
2021-12-30€200kReal Sociedad C
2022-06-29€200kReal Sociedad C
2022-12-29€400kReal Sociedad B
2023-03-24€500kReal Sociedad B
2023-06-13€1MReal Sociedad B
2023-10-13€1.5MReal Sociedad B
2023-12-20€1.5MReal Sociedad B
2024-06-24€1.5MReal Sociedad B
2024-12-27€1.8MReal Sociedad
2025-03-21€3MReal Sociedad
2025-06-09€8MReal Sociedad
2025-12-12€8MReal Sociedad
2026-06-05€7MReal Sociedad

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.275

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 65% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 71% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Marín appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).