Pablo
Durán
CFSpain · Celta de Vigo
Player dossierLaLiga
PabloDurán
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Celta de Vigo
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Durán at €4M. Model A, which never saw Durán during training, estimates €6.2M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.54. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 71
- Minutes
- 3,531
- Goals
- 11
- Assists
- 8
- Started
- 39/71
- Min / app
- 50
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Durán…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
3,531 this player2,242 attacker median74th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Aug 2021
- Peak
- €4M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €4M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €4M, Celta de Vigo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-08-10 | €50k | SD Compostela |
| 2021-12-30 | €100k | SD Compostela |
| 2022-06-29 | €250k | SD Compostela |
| 2022-12-29 | €250k | Celta Vigo B |
| 2023-06-30 | €250k | Celta Vigo B |
| 2023-12-20 | €250k | RC Celta Fortuna |
| 2024-03-26 | €300k | RC Celta Fortuna |
| 2024-06-24 | €300k | RC Celta Fortuna |
| 2024-12-27 | €1M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2025-03-21 | €3.5M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2025-06-09 | €3.5M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2025-12-12 | €4M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2026-06-05 | €4M | Celta de Vigo |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.432
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Durán appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CarvajalRBReal Madrid · LaLiga€4M
- LengletCBAtlético de Madrid · LaLiga€4M
- MaupayCFSevilla FC · LaLiga€4M
- GayàLBValencia CF · LaLiga€4M
- IcardiCFGalatasaray · attackers€4M
- WilsonCFWest Ham United · attackers€4M
- TraoréRWSunderland AFC · attackers€4M
- GrifoLWSC Freiburg · attackers€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).