FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Jorrel Hato

Jorrel

Hato

LBNetherlands · Chelsea FC

№ 904802World Class €40.4M −0.01

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JorrelHato

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Chelsea FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
20
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hato at €40M. Model A, which never saw Hato during training, estimates €40.4M: the market value is 1% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €43.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.01A €40.4M▼ −0.09B €43.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
85
Minutes
6,343
Goals
5
Assists
7
Started
72/85
Min / app
75
Cards
19Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hato…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €40.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jorrel Hato's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 76th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 95th, Starts 55th, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 93rd76thGoals77thAssists95thMinutes55thStarts66thRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,343 this player2,860 defender median95th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2.5M
Apr 2023
Peak
€40M
Oct 2025
Model target
€40M
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
Jun 2026€40MChelsea FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €40M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-04-03€2.5MAjax Amsterdam U21
2023-06-23€5MAjax Amsterdam
2023-10-17€10MAjax Amsterdam
2023-12-15€22MAjax Amsterdam
2024-05-31€30MAjax Amsterdam
2024-12-17€30MAjax Amsterdam
2025-05-28€35MAjax Amsterdam
2025-10-17€40MChelsea FC
2025-12-09€35MChelsea FC
2026-06-03€40MChelsea FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.009

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 83% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hato appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).