FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Assan Ouédraogo

Assan

Ouédraogo

CMGermany · RB Leipzig

№ 897424Elite €11.1M +0.92

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

AssanOuédraogo

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
RB Leipzig
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
20
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ouédraogo at €28M. Model A, which never saw Ouédraogo during training, estimates €11.1M: the market value is 152% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.92A €11.1M▲ +1.51B €6.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
1,030
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
13/25
Min / app
41
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ouédraogo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €28M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €28MModel A €11.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Assan Ouédraogo's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 98th, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 30th, European club minutes 61st96thGoals98thAssists14thMinutes24thStarts30thRecent61stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.35 this player0.09 midfielder median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jul 2023
Peak
€28M
Dec 2025
Model target
€28M
May 2026
Valuations
9
1 club change
May 2026€28MRB LeipzigValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €28M, RB Leipzig. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-07-01€500kFC Schalke 04
2023-10-20€6MFC Schalke 04
2023-12-15€8MFC Schalke 04
2024-06-06€10MFC Schalke 04
2024-12-20€10MRB Leipzig
2025-06-05€7MRB Leipzig
2025-10-14€10MRB Leipzig
2025-12-19€28MRB Leipzig
2026-05-27€28MRB Leipzig

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.925

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 89% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€28MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ouédraogo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).