João
Marques
LWPortugal · Casa Pia AC
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoãoMarques
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- Casa Pia AC
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Marques at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Marques during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 36% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 31
- Minutes
- 1,229
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 12/31
- Min / app
- 40
- Cards
- 7Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marques…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Assists per 90
Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.22 this player0.15 attacker median76th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Jun 2021
- Peak
- €3.5M
- Mar 2024
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 11
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, Casa Pia AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-29 | €250k | Vitória Setúbal FC |
| 2023-03-02 | €300k | Estoril Praia U23 |
| 2023-06-16 | €300k | Estoril Praia U23 |
| 2023-09-29 | €1M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2023-12-27 | €2.5M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2024-03-08 | €3.5M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2024-06-06 | €3.5M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2024-12-19 | €3M | SC Braga |
| 2025-05-30 | €3M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €1.5M | SC Braga |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.5M | Casa Pia AC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.305
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Marques appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- JordanCFCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- SchettineCFMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- MoreiraCMCF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- PanzoCBRio Ave FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- GregoritschCFFC Augsburg · attackers€1.5M
- BelottiCFCagliari Calcio · attackers€1.5M
- BeckerLW1.FSV Mainz 05 · attackers€1.5M
- GlatzelCFHamburger SV · attackers€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).