FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Semih

Kılıçsoy

CFTürkiye · Cagliari Calcio

№ 875334Elite €17M −0.44

Player dossierSerie A

SemihKılıçsoy

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Cagliari Calcio
League
Serie A
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
20
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kılıçsoy at €11M. Model A, which never saw Kılıçsoy during training, estimates €17M: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.44A €17M▼ −0.16B €12.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
2,906
Goals
8
Assists
6
Started
28/68
Min / app
43
Cards
7Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kılıçsoy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €11M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €11MModel A €17M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Semih Kılıçsoy's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 47th, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 65th, Starts 22nd, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 80th47thGoals65thAssists65thMinutes22ndStarts44thRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

18% this player0% attacker median80th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Mar 2023
Peak
€15M
Oct 2024
Model target
€11M
May 2026
Valuations
13
2 club changes
May 2026€11MCagliari CalcioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €11M, Cagliari Calcio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-03-14€150kBesiktas JK U19
2023-06-08€175kBesiktas JK
2023-09-27€375kBesiktas JK
2023-12-21€550kBesiktas JK
2024-03-15€8MBesiktas JK
2024-05-31€12MBesiktas JK
2024-10-04€15MBesiktas JK
2024-12-23€15MBesiktas JK
2025-03-20€14MBesiktas JK
2025-06-18€12MBesiktas JK
2025-12-23€10MCagliari Calcio
2026-03-24€13MCagliari Calcio
2026-05-29€11MCagliari Calcio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.436

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 69% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 79% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€11MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kılıçsoy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).