Arda
Güler
AMTürkiye · Real Madrid
Player dossierLaLiga
ArdaGüler
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Real Madrid
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Türkiye
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 175 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Güler at €90M. Model A, which never saw Güler during training, estimates €88.1M: the market value is 2% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €71.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 99
- Minutes
- 5,450
- Goals
- 12
- Assists
- 25
- Started
- 63/99
- Min / app
- 55
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Güler…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €90M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Assists per 90
Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.41 this player0.09 midfielder median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2021
- Peak
- €90M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €90M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 17
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €90M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-13 | €100k | Fenerbahce |
| 2021-10-12 | €650k | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-01-04 | €750k | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-03-31 | €2.2M | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-06-01 | €6M | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-09-13 | €9M | Fenerbahce |
| 2022-10-27 | €10M | Fenerbahce |
| 2023-03-14 | €11M | Fenerbahce |
| 2023-06-08 | €15M | Fenerbahce |
| 2023-12-22 | €15M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €30M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-07-18 | €45M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €45M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €45M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-10-02 | €60M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-12-12 | €90M | Real Madrid |
| 2026-06-05 | €90M | Real Madrid |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.022
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →LaLiga509 players · median €4M
Joint 8th highest observed value among 509 LaLiga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 99% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Güler appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ValverdeCMReal Madrid · LaLiga€90M
- AlvarezCFAtlético de Madrid · LaLiga€100M
- LópezAMFC Barcelona · LaLiga€100M
- CubarsíCBFC Barcelona · LaLiga€80M
- RogersAMAston Villa · midfielders€90M
- CherkiAMManchester City · midfielders€90M
- FernándezCMChelsea FC · midfielders€90M
- PavlovicDMBayern Munich · midfielders€90M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).