FairValue

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Portrait of Iván Balliu

Iván

Balliu

RBAlbania · Rayo Vallecano

№ 85295Emerging €842k +0.17

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

IvánBalliu

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Rayo Vallecano
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Albania
Age
34
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Balliu at €1M. Model A, which never saw Balliu during training, estimates €842k: the market value is 19% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €727k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.17A €842k▲ +0.32B €727k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
2,520
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
27/48
Min / app
53
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Balliu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €842k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Iván Balliu's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 48th, Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 69th18thGoals48thAssists44thMinutes12thStarts29thRecent69thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

7% this player0% defender median69th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2011
Peak
€4M
Mar 2023
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1MRayo VallecanoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Rayo Vallecano. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-08-08€100kFC Barcelona B
2012-03-01€200kFC Barcelona B
2012-08-07€500kFC Barcelona B
2013-01-22€600kFC Barcelona B
2013-05-09€800kFC Barcelona B
2014-07-25€1MFC Arouca
2015-02-17€1.5MFC Arouca
2015-07-01€1.5MFC Arouca
2016-02-04€800kFC Metz
2016-07-13€800kFC Metz
2016-11-01€1.3MFC Metz
2017-01-16€1.3MFC Metz
2017-06-01€2MFC Metz
2018-01-24€1MFC Metz
2018-06-04€1MFC Metz
2019-01-08€1MFC Metz
2019-06-27€1MFC Metz
2019-12-20€1MUD Almería
2020-04-08€800kUD Almería
2020-10-08€800kUD Almería
2021-01-08€1MUD Almería
2021-06-24€1MUD Almería
2021-12-30€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2022-06-03€2MRayo Vallecano
2022-11-07€3.5MRayo Vallecano
2023-03-23€4MRayo Vallecano
2023-06-13€4MRayo Vallecano
2023-12-22€3.5MRayo Vallecano
2024-03-21€2.5MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€2MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€1.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€1.4MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-12€1.2MRayo Vallecano
2026-06-05€1MRayo Vallecano

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.172

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Balliu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).